A truce between Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas in Gaza was never going to be easy. Weeks of talks have failed to produce agreement. But international pressure is growing.
The Biden administration is sending CIA head William Burns for Cairo talks. Hamas demands a permanent ceasefire, withdrawal of Israeli troops, and return of displaced Palestinians. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu insists on fighting until Hamas is destroyed and hostages are freed. More American pressure is on Israel, Egypt, and Qatar.
"The fact that the head of the CIA showed up, which required all the negotiators to be there at the highest level. That's indicative of increased American pressure."
Israel is considering a deal to release some hostages captured in Hamas attacks in exchange for Palestinian prisoners being held in Israeli jails. The US proposal suggests an initial phase of a six-week ceasefire would see Hamas release 40 alive hostages, with priority given to female captives, soldiers, men over 50, and those with serious medical conditions. Israel would then release at least 700 Palestinians, including about 100 serving life sentences for killing Israelis. However, Hamas has reportedly told negotiators it is not holding 40 people in this category, raising the possibility that many more hostages have died or could be in the hands of other armed groups.
In Israel, pressure from various parts of society and politics is limited by calls for Netanyahu to agree to a deal for the release of the hostages. Families have held large protests, accusing the prime minister of not making the captives' return a priority and of being more concerned with his own political survival. Calls for Netanyahu to resign are also on the rise.
Divisions within Netanyahu's governing coalition, which includes far-right, ultranationalist allies who refuse concessions to Hamas and insist the war must go on, have intensified. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has told the prime minister that increasing pressure on Hamas is the only way to bring the hostages back and destroy the group. However, virtually everyone outside Israel is against an offensive in Rafah, where about 1.5 million Palestinians are sheltering due to concerns about the catastrophic impact it could have on civilians.
"There's a revolt going on right now in the government, and within [Mr Netanyahu's party] Likud, against Netanyahu making any kind of deal that they don't think should be made," Mr Baskin said.
"Netanyahu is not a free actor, but rather a hostage within his own government.
Hamas has not yet responded to a recent proposal to end Israeli aggression on Palestinians, but it expressed interest in an agreement that met its demands. The White House described the group's response as "less than encouraging". A final decision is likely to be made by Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in Gaza, who is thought to be hiding in tunnels surrounded by guards and hostages. Hamas also demands more say in the release of Palestinian prisoners and does not agree to deporting them to another country, which could present obstacles to negotiations.
Hamas believes that without guarantees of a permanent ceasefire, Israel will continue to attack the group once the hostages are released. The war in Gaza, Israel's response to the Hamas attacks on 7 October, has killed more than 33,000 Palestinians, destroyed large parts of the territory, and left many on the brink of famine.
The main difficulties are whether the main decision maker on both sides is ready for a deal. It is not clear whether Netanyahu is ready for a deal or if Hamas political leader Yahya Sinwar is ready for a deal. Hamas spokespersons have seized on Netanyahu's comments about setting a date for an attack on Rafah, raising questions about the purpose of resuming negotiations.